Special
elections are politically freaky. They are hostage to the whim of unpredictable
voter turnout on
some random date. At least, that's how some quivering Democrats, still
reeling from the jolt of Republican Scott Brown's smashing victory
in the special Massachusetts Senate election, are consoling themselves.
Not to be mean, but let's look at the history books.
On the night of Nov. 5, 1991, Democrat Harris Wofford, after trailing former
Pennsylvania governor and U.S. Attorney General Dick Thornburgh by 40 percent
in the polls, won the special election to replace Republican Sen. John Heinz,
who had died in a plane crash.
To a cheering crowd of supporters, Wofford explained what his campaign victory
meant: "Let the word go forth form this place on the Delaware to our nation's
capital on the banks of the Potomac: 'We want national health insurance.'"
During his 1991 effort, Wofford had formulated the winning argument, "If
criminals have the right to a lawyer, I think working Americans should have
the right to a doctor."
The Wofford campaign, led by James Carville and Paul Begala (who would go from
there to central roles in Bill Clinton's winning presidential campaign) put
health care squarely on the national agenda. In fact, in Clinton's Little Rock,
Ark.,
headquarters, Carville -- to remind campaign workers what the campaign was
entirely about -- had a sign that read: "Change vs. More of the Same," "The
Economy, Stupid" and "Don't Forget Healthcare."
Campaign themes do often become presidential initiatives, as health care reform
did in Clinton's first White House term. The failure of the new Democratic administration
to even get a floor vote on the president's health care plan in either the House
or Senate, both controlled by his own party, contributed to the Democrats' losing
their House majority in 1994. Special elections often do have enormous consequences.
Nineteen years later, Scott Brown's special election Senate victory in Massachusetts
could be the bookend to Harris Wofford's 1991 Pennsylvania upset win. Where Pennsylvania
voters then pushed the issue and idea of health care to national attention, Massachusetts
voters now may well have sunk the first national health care reform plan ever
to pass both houses of Congress.
It is both silly and unrealistic to propose, as some health care supporters have,
that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi ask her House colleagues to pass the Senate bill.
For House Democrats, to vote for the Senate bill with its widely publicized special
deals, including the Louisiana Purchase to secure the vote of Democrat Sen. Mary
Landrieu and the Nebraska Auction to win the backing of Democratic Sen. Ben Nelson,
would be political suicide.
Republican managers are already salivating over the prospects of running a campaign
against any House Democrat who voted to ratify and justify those rightly criticized
Senate deals -- so politically objectionable that Nelson publicly asked that
Nebraska's special treatment be dropped from the legislation.
Massachusetts was a major, important victory for Republicans and a major, important
defeat for Democrats. Unwilling to face that reality, some White House types
argue that "local issues" were decisive in Massachusetts. Sorry,
but the president's personal campaigning and the millions spent by the national
party
committees and affiliated groups effectively nationalized the Massachusetts
race.
The easy and wrong way out for losing Democrats is to blame the candidate, the
failed nominee Martha Coakley. Blaming the losing candidate can sometimes shift
blame. But it also ignores the distinct likelihood that voters may instead have
found Our Party's record, ideas or values irrelevant, clueless or objectionable.
Coakley will not be on the ballot next fall in Ohio, Missouri, Pennsylvania,
California or Delaware. But the Democratic candidates who will be are a lot more
nervous today, after Scott Browns' upset win, than they were before Jan. 19.
To find out more about Mark Shields and read his past columns, visit
the Creators Syndicate web page at www.creators.com.
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COPYRIGHT 2010 MARK SHIELDS
